Very low probability of 2 advanced societies at same time in universe

 (work against the mainstream) This is an IMAGINE

Author : Luis Biarge Baldellou – Email: lbiar@mail.com

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 The probability of 2 advanced societies needed for the seti proyects is near 0:

 To give an approximation we need consider the live of the star, our star (the Sun) has 4.57 billion years (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun ) and with estimated live total of 12.3 Billion years (http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_much_longer_do_scientists_think_the_sun_will_live)

 Our advanced society has only 100 years (really many less) and probably will have few years more (oil peak, …).

 In all forms we can consider 1000 years of advanced civilization for connect with other civilizations in the universe, this means that 1000/12,300,000,000 = 8.13 e-8 or 0,0000000813  (other stars have more years of life, so the division would be less – until estimated 10 trillion years – http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_old_are_stars)

 Searching live extraterrestrial and the very low probability of 2 advanced civilization at same time, this is of 8.13 e-8 x 8.13 e-8 = 64 e-16. This is near infinite impossible.

 Well, we are at present in supposed advanced society, so to take in count with other civilization in Milky way the relation would to be only of 8.13 e-8 and like “The Milky Way contains at least 100 billion stars[23] and may have up to 400 billion stars” in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way  this means supposing total of 400 billion stars a probably of 400 billion x 0,0000000813  = 32,520 possibilities.

 But this 32,520 is far of the good answer, in our Milky way only are visible near to “5000 visible “stars”” – http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070619192110AAkkCVp

 Also can speak over 84 millions of stars http://www.space.com/18193-milky-way-photo-84-millions-stars.html , this would be a better approximation but 84 millions x 0,0000000813  = 6.82 considering near 1000 years of advanced society in both planets.

 Now our next question would be if we are really advanced to contact with other civilization and the answer is “NO”

 Do you believe we could obtain signal from all this planets with probably live in the 84 millions of stars visible in the Milky way? Really you believe we can only listen their signals? More problems are with send signals.

 Our actual technology permits us near the limit to contact with our satellites a few more that our solar system “the voyager” or the satellite send to Pluto. This technology is according to know where is the satellite, …

 Probably our actual technology cannot take contact neither with the nearest start to us (“Proxima Centauri is the nearest star to the Sun” – Proxima Centauri is the nearest star to the Sun.) with a distance of about 4.24 light years (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxima_Centauri).

 “Pluto is about four light-hours from Earth” http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071120195143AAcI3bi and “Pluto’s distance from Earth makes in-depth investigation difficult. Many details about Pluto will remain unknown until 2015,” in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluto so Proxima Centauri is only 24/4 = 6 x 365 x 4.24 = 9285.6 more distance that Pluto.

 You can read the Communication system with voyager 1 in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_1 that “includes a 3.7 meter diameter parabolic”

 Really the Hubble telescope cannot give details from Pluto and that it have “Surface area of     1.665×107 km2[b] – or 0.033 Earths” and pretend to obtain signal of planets to many more distance.

 If Hubble telescope cannot give signal of a body so big and at so low distance: Do you believe we can receive so little signal from so big distances in electromagnetic waves?

 Radio telescopes may help for stars and other universe signals but not for societies signals : “Just as optical astronomers make images using the light emitted by celestial objects such as stars and galaxies, radio astronomers can make images using the radio waves emitted by such objects” – http://www.nrao.edu/index.php/learn/radioastronomy/interference

 The radio telescope signal are very attenuated (speaking over the star signal) “The radio signals arriving on Earth from astronomical objects are extremely weak — millions (or billions) of times weaker than the signals used by communication systems.”- http://www.nrao.edu/index.php/learn/radioastronomy/interference , so imagine the power of a society signal infinitely less that the big strong signal of stars.

 Imagine the big power to send a signal for to be a strong near to star signal, probably all the energy of the planet would not be enough.

 Also we need to add the interferences in waves for stars (“Satellite Interference By The Sun” in http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/1/3/9 ) because any planet need to be around a star and that star would make interferences to the society signals.

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 Maybe in the future a new advanced society in Earth admit connection with other planets in the universe but our advanced society is below the requirements for connect in same form that primitive man cannot contact to the antipodes.

 In relation to send signal the problem is many more, we would need with actual technology transmit with a power near of a star to obtain a so little quantity of signal like stars are visible with telescopes and also transmitted in an exact direction and only in the direction of the parabolic antenna. More, also need admit a big dispersion in actual antennas by a big radio.

 An example: Soho satellite lost communication with the Earth from June 24 to August 4 of 1998 by an error in “antennas were no longer angled toward Earth” – http://edition.cnn.com/TECH/space/9808/04/soho/index.html and with not so big distance from Earth. Distance of “1,500,000 km 1% of the distance to the Sun” – http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_distance_of_SOHO_satellite_from_the_earth

 Probably the scientists could obtain a solution to see a probably oxygen atmosphere but this will be probably the only relation with probably live in other planets.

 In same relation that with advanced societies we can make the relation with live, considering the Earth live of “life date to 3.85 billion years ago” – http://www.astrobio.net/exclusive/293/when-did-life-on-earth-begin-ask-a-rock

 So the relation with life is 3.85 billion/12.3 Billion years = 0.313 but in relation to live, not necessary of oxygen and without technology.

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Probably we make to consider the big quantities of money spend in live in other planets and seem near to a fraud. The probability to obtain contact with live or know existence of life is infinitely low, so near 0 in all form, same in all stars would have life. Our advanced society probably cannot take constant neither with a civilization in Proxima Centauri.

 This seems only a FRAUD. An entertainment.

 More information over positive result can to be show for example in:

 Seti of nasa – http://history.nasa.gov/seti.html

seti@home – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SETI@home

 For example, “The price tag for the Cyclops array was $10 billion USD”  (radio telescope) – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence , maybe be good for universe signals, fraud for life signals.

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Really connecting with other advanced civilitacion is near impossible or more. We need to add the low probability of 2 advanced societies in same time, the interferences from the star of each solar system, the antenna, the very big atenuattion with universe distances, the very big signal in relation to stars, …

 But seem a good tale and in good relation to fraud or machination like UFO,

Consider treat to contact with Proxima Centauri, you need a parabolic anten in that direction, a power of many wat, probably you would need near the power of 50 nuclear plants (or more) for obtain a signal probably 1 trillion less power that the Sun (without take in count the electronic for that – transistors, …) with that signal probably you could make a signal of 2 minutes. This signal will arrive to Proxima Centauri in 4.24 years and only is signal for 2 minutes, in Proxima Centauri only would to ear the signal if there is a parabolic pointed to the earth. In case of receive by an advanced civilization they could send signal for us maybe yes or maybe not, … All this for 1 only information in both directions???? the cost??? the value???? maybe also that when arrive the answer to us in 8.48 years our antennas are not directed to Proxima Centauri and we lost the answer.

An this only with the more nearest star to us.

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Author: Luis Biarge Baldellou

Email: lbiar@mail.com

Copyright ©2013 Luis Biarge Baldellou – You can copy all or part of this work giving this web page direction.